INSTYTUT METEOROLOGII I GOSPODARKI WODNEJ INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION PIOTR MAŃCZAK, MAGDALENA OŻGA EUMETCAL NWP APPLICATIONS COURSE, HELSINKI NOV/DEC 2009

THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION OPERATIONAL MODELS INPLEMENTED IN IMGW

MODEL BASIC SET-UP THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION - domain size: 2700x2200 km - grid spacing: 14 km - number of layers: 35 - initial state: GME - initial time of model runs: 00 UTC, 12 UTC - forecast range: 7 8 h

FORECAST OF TEMPERATURE AND WIND THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Forecast of temperature and wind on different levels for general aviation 0 m AGL 300 m AGL 600 m AGL 1000 m AGL 1500 m AGL 3000 m AGL

Forecast of temperature and wind THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION 21-hour forecast of wind on level 1000 m AGL for TMA Kraków THE OTHERS TMA: Gdańsk Katowice Kraków Łódź Warszawa Zielona Góra, Poznań Bydgoszcz Rzeszów Szczecin Wrocław

Forecast of freezing level and icing THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Icing forecast was created by means of operational system LEADS on the basis of temperature, geopotential height and dew point depression from COSMO. LEADS (Leading Environmental Analysis and Display System) is a software suite that collects meteorological data form various sources and provides the processing and display capability to enable users to create meteorological support products automatically or manually.

Forecast of QNH THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION A forecast of atmospheric pressure is converted into QNH by means of barometric formula in ICAO Standard Atmosphere conditions. QNH is calculated with a 1-hour step for each of 17 regions of altimeter setting and for 3 emergency sectors (18-20).

Forecast of minimum QNH CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA In accordance with requirements of Polish Air Navigation Services Agency a minimum QNH is calculated over 3 sectors (18-20) in 3-hour periods. THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION

Correction of forecast of minimum QNH CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA A forecast of minimum QNH for all regions is corrected every hour by means of SYNOP data → estimation of an error in the forecast on the basis of the error from the previous hour → the use of pressure tendency → calculation of an error in the forecast in next hour → correction THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION

CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWATHE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Analysis 07 th Nov UTC Forecast 07 th Nov UTC Warsaw

Comparison of COSMO temperature forecast UTC + 12 and TEMP data CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA The real data and temperature forecasts for surface and 300 m AGL are similar (the radiosonding measurements from Legionowo, Łeba, Wrocław are marked in red coloure). Only 2 degrees difference is in Legionowo – the real temperature was lower than forecasted by COSMO. The small area with the forecast surface temperature ≥6°C THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION

Comparison of COSMO forecast UTC + 12 and TEMP data CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA The real temperature at 600 m and 1000 m AGL differ from the forecasts. In Łeba and Wrocław the temperature is higher than it was done in forecast. Probably the reason of these differences is a temperature inversion in boundary layer connected with air subsidence. THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION

Comparison of COSMO forecast UTC + 12 and TEMP data CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA In Legionowo temperature at 600 m is lower than forecast. This inversion is caused by the warm temperature advection connected with warm front coming from SE. A subsidence inversion still occur over western and northern part of Poland. THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION subsidence inversion frontal inversion

Comparison of COSMO forecast UTC + 12 and TEMP data CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWA at 1500 m in Łeba and at 3000 m in Łeba and Wrocław forecasted temperatures were overestimated by 1-2°C. The model assumed homogeneous warm advection which is easy to recognized over SE and central part of Poland, this advection is invisible over the rest part of the country. THE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Freezing level at 00 UTC 1400 m Freezing level at 12 UTC 1400 m Freezing level at 00 UTC SFC, 2100 m Freezing level at 12 UTC 2000 m Freezing level at 00 UTC 1700 m Freezing level at 12 UTC 2000 m

CONCLUSIONS CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWATHE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION There are some problems with temperature forecast in boundary layer in case of subsidence inversion existence (maybe the reason is not enough amount of layers in the model in lower troposphere?) For aviation it could be dangerous especially when clouds are in combination with sub-zero or near zero temperature because of icing.

CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWATHE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Analysis 07 th Nov UTC Forecast 07 th Nov UTC Warsaw

CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWATHE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Warsaw

CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWATHE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Warsaw godz. 06 UTC

CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWATHE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Warsaw godz. 12 UTC Warsaw

CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWATHE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION Warsaw godz. 12 UTC

Comparison of COSMO forecast for wind speed and direction UTC + 12 and TEMP data CIŚNIENIE ATMOSFERYCZNE I JEGO ZNACZENIE DLA LOTNICTWATHE USE OF COSMO LM MODEL FOR AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN POLISH FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION The wind speed and direction were forecast well in that situation. Just in few cases there were some differences in wind direction, especially at small wind velocities (real data - red wind barbs)

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Magdalena Ożga e_mail: Piotr Mańczak e_mail: INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT