Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; Experiences with macromodelling for assessing policy impacts. POLAND

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; How Poland implements EU financial support Sectoral Operational Programs Integrated Regional Operational Program (IROP) Cohesion Fund ROP (Regional Operational Program) 3 Sectoral Operational Programs 1 Polish East Voivodships Program

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; : Polish voivodships

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; HERMIN MODEL HERMIN 1: HERMIN 2: HERMIN 3: –Improvement of national model –Creation of 16 regional HERMIN models

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; National economy modelling Lots of data Lots of theory Lots of impressive econometrics Stable economic structures Modelling Polish regional economies Very little data Some theory, often only of limited relevance Not much econometrics possible Evolving economic structures and instability Problems with disaggregation in Polish modelling

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; How can we use macromodeling? NDP &NSRF impacts on the Polish economy ROP impacts on Dolnośląskie economy

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; Combined NDP &NSRF impact on national Gross Domestic Product (%)

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; ROP impacts: The case of Dolnosląskie Financial data for the evaluation of ROP was received from Dolnośląskie Marshal’s office and it is based on a draft of Integrated Voivodship Programme and Regional Operational Programme for Dolnośląskie Voivodship for the years

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; L.P. Prioryty Allocation A – 50 % B – 40 % C – 30 % 1 Innovativeness 10% 7% 2 SME 25%17%10% 3 Informational society 10%8%5% 4 Transport 15%17%20% 5 Environment 9%10%13% 6 Protection 3%5%8% 7 Energetic 5% 3% 8 Tourism 5%6%7% 9 Culture 4% 5% 10 Education 5%7% 11 Health 3% 5% 12 Urban areas 3%5%7% 13 Technical Assistance 3%

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; ROP impact on national Gross Domestic Product (GDPM) of Dolnośląskie

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; Conclusions Models are only a tool!

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; Conclusions You need at least 2 models!

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5, Warszawa; Thank you!