Global Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Polish Housing Market

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Zapis prezentacji:

Global Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Polish Housing Market M.Sc. Konrad Zelazowski Department of Investment and Real Estate University of Lodz Lodz, Poland email: kzelazowski@uni.lodz.pl

The aim of the article is to investigate possible consequences of recent financial crisis for Polish real estate market development. Is it a temporary slowdown or a long term collapse?

Number of flats per 1,000 inhabitants in EU Member States Source: data provided by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and EMF Hypostat 2006, A review of Europe’s Mortgage and Housing Markets, European Mortgage Federation, November 2007

Supply of flats in the Polish real estate market Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)

State budget expenditures on the housing sector Source: E. Kucharska-Stasiak Rynek nieruchomości a sektor bankowy, Fundacja na Rzecz Kredytu Hipotecznego 2008, p. 114.

Mortgage debt as percentage of GDP in European countries Source: L. Nykiel, Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w I kwartale 2009r.(Housing market in Poland in Q1 2009), Departament Bankowości hipotecznej PKO BP, 2009, p. 18.

Interest rate levels Source: L. Nykiel, Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w I kwartale 2009r.(Housing market in Poland in Q1 2009), Departament Bankowości hipotecznej PKO BP, 2009, p. 32.

Increase in mortgage debt in Poland Source: L. Nykiel, Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w I kwartale 2009r.(Housing market in Poland in Q1 2009), Departament Bankowości hipotecznej PKO BP, 2009, p. 32.

Increase in housing real estate prices Source: redNet Consulting

Number and average amount of housing loans granted quarterly between 2003 and 2007 Source: E. Kucharska-Stasiak Rynek nieruchomości a sektor bankowy (Real Estate Market and the Bank Sector), Fundacja na Rzecz Kredytu Hipotecznego 2008, p. 128.

Dynamics of changes in real estate prices and construction costs for 1 sq. m. Source: L. Nykiel, Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w III kwartale 2008r.(Polish Housing Market in Q3 2008), Departament Bankowości hipotecznej PKO BP, 2008, p. 25.

The number of square meters of residential property purchasable for an average gross salary Source: L. Nykiel, Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w III kwartale 2008r.(Polish Housing Market in Q3 2008), Departament Bankowości hipotecznej PKO BP, 2008.

Value of P/R ratio for selected local markets Source: Jacek Łaszek, Ryzyko wystąpienia bąbli na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych, NBP, Warsaw, June 5, 2008, conference presentation.

Share of speculative demand in total demand for housing real estate (Warsaw market) Source: redNet Consulting

Quarterly fluctuations in the number of new mortgage loans Source: Open Finance report, 2009.

Housing price changes in major Polish cities Source: L. Nykiel, Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w I kwartale 2009r.(Polish Housing Market in Q1 2009), Departament Bankowości hipotecznej PKO BP, 2009, p. 41.

The main factors determining future changes in real estate prices in Poland will include the following: availability of mortgages, the macroeconomic situation, changes in salaries and the unemployment rate, availability of external financing sources (loans) for developers and construction companies.

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