Phytoplankton multimetric PMPL - uncertainty analysis for Wel catchment lakes Andrzej Hutorowicz 1 Agnieszka Napiórkowska-Krzebietke 1 Agnieszka Pasztaleniec 2 Joanna Hutorowicz 1 Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund 1 Instytut Rybactwa Śródlądowego, ul. Oczapowskiego 10, Olsztyn 2 Instytut Ochrony Środowiska, ul. Kolektorska 4, Warszawa

Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund Phytoplantkon data base hugs:  I determine uncertainty associated with the classification of ecological status, based on only 2 metriks: „Chlorophyll” and „Biomass”.  The analyse was performed on 2 steps: Step 1. Assessment of the relative error of individual measurement of biomass and chlorophyll a. The resultant estimates of the average within-site sampling/processing variability. Step 2. Assessment of the relative error of the average biomass and average chlorophyll concentration for metriks „Chlorophyll” and „Biomass”. It’s estimation of the chlorophyll/biomass average and the waited value (average from model) differences. Uncertainty analysis for lakes of the Wel catchment

Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund Phytoplantkon data base hugs:  112 phytoplankton and chlorophyll samples from 10 lakes (16 sites), were taken from April to November (lack of repetitions).  27 samples for chlorophyll a from L. Kiełpińskie, Lidzbarskie, Rumian (were sampled only in August from 3 locations with 3 replicates from each location).  4 samples for biomass taken only in August from L. Kiełpińskie, Lidzbarskie, Rumian (2 stations), with 3 replicates from each location counted by 2 different analysts.

Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund Variations of chlorophyll a concentration (mean and SD) in water (9 stations in 3 lakes) Chlorophyll a [mg m 3 ] Kiełpińskie Rumian Lidzbarskie

Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund The relative error of individual measurement m was calculated according to modified equation: were v 2 - the square of relative difference of the measured value and average for site/sample n – number of replications Step 1. Relative error of individual measurement of biomass and chlorophyll a

Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund LakeNAverageSD Average relative error of individual measurement Kiełpińskie2 · 3 = 62,450,300,121 Lidzbarskie2 · 3 = 613,232,160,163 Rumian 12 · 3 = 612,492,490,199 Rumian 22 · 3 = 611,852,290, ,1601 Error of the biomass assessment

Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund LakeNAverageSD Average relative error of individual measurement Kiełpińskie 1312,51790, ,021 Kiełpińskie 2313,73780, ,043 Kiełpińskie 3313,92890, ,044 Lidzbarskie 1356,72894, ,084 Lidzbarskie 2343,57332, ,063 Lidzbarskie 3344,15115, ,118 Rumian 1342,36892, ,049 Rumian 2336,54671, ,044 Rumian 3342,21333, , ,0557 Error of the chlorophyll a assessment

Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund The relative error of measurement m w was calculated according to modified equation: were v 2 - the square of relative (to measured value) difference of the measured value and waited value (average from model) w i – weight of individual measurement w – sum of weights Step 2. Relative error of weighed biomass and chlorophyll a measurement

Model for L. Lidzbarskie Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund Time

Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund Models for all Wel catchment lakes Time

Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund Biomass Average relative errorChlorophyll Average relative error Dąbrowa Mała Dąbrowa Mała Dąbrowa Wielka Dąbrowa Wielka Dąbrowa Wielka Grądy Grądy Grądy J. Hartowieckie J. Kiełpińskie J. Lidzbarskie J. Rumian J. Rumian J. Tarczyńskie J. Zarybinek J. Zwiniarz ,2110,177

Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund BiomassChlorophyll a Relative error0,26490,1856 Total relative errors ( M ) of biomass and chlorophyll a for the Wel catchment lakes The total relative error was calculated following the equation:

Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund Probability of „poor” class membership of the Wel catchment lakes N = 12

Polsko-Norweski Fundusz Badań Naukowych / Polish-Norwegian Research Fund Status class and probability of class membership of the Wel catchment lakes Site/sampleStatushighgoodmoderatepoorbad Kiełpińskie good15%83%2% Hartowieckie moderate5%80%15% Zarybinek moderate2%50%50%48%48% N=12 poor1%19%19%63%17% Tarczyńskie bad5%95%

Anabaena spiroides f crassa Ceratium hirundinella Aphanizomenon flos-aquae Cryptomonas rostrata Gloeotrichia echinulataAphanocapsa incerta Thank you for patencie !!!!