Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Wspólne badania, wzajemne inspiracje.

Prezentacja na temat: "Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Wspólne badania, wzajemne inspiracje."— Zapis prezentacji:

1 Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Wspólne badania, wzajemne inspiracje

2 Ponad 30 lat współpracy: Modelowanie systemów wodno – rolniczych (region Górnej Noteci) Modelowanie regionalne (region Bełchatowa) Systemy komputerowego wspomagania decyzji grupowych Modele wspomagania procesów negocjacji dotyczących realizacji protokołu z Kioto ………………..

3 Modelowanie jakości powietrza atmosferycznego Optymalny wybór strategii redukcji emisji zanieczyszczeń Sterowanie emisją zanieczyszczeń w czasie rzeczywistym doc. Piotr Holnicki-Szulc holnicki@ibspan.waw.pl

4 emission Sulfur dioxidesulfate SO 2 SO 4 = dry deposition wet deposition dry depositionwashout oxidation vd1vd1 βQβQ(1- β)Q vd2vd2 kw1kw1 kw2kw2 ktkt Sulfur-cycle and transport processes

5

6 1) "doing nothing" technology (e = 0 ), 2) low sulphur fuel (e = 0.30 ), 3) dry desulfurization method (e = 0.35 ), 4) low sulphur fuel + dry desulfurization method (e = 0.545 ), 5) half-dry desulfurization method (e = 0.75 ), 7) wet desulfurization method (e = 0.85 ), 8) Low sulfur fuel + wet desulfurization method (e = 0.895 ), 6) low sulphur fuel + half-dry desulfurization method (e = 0.825 ), The real data case study – desulfurization technologies Computational domain and Efficiency of abatement technologies location of emission sources 110 km x 76 km – rectangle domain 20 – power plants (emission sources)

7 Table 1. Characteristics of the controlled emission sources No SourceCoord.Stack [m] Emiss [t/d] Unit abatement cost 1Jaworzno III(21,24)250303.20.000.1020.0970.3890.434 2Rybnik(1,20)200225.20.000.1830.1740.6380.743 3Siersza A(30,23)150104.00.000.0450.0920.3770.449 4SierszaB(30.23)26091.80.000.0510.1040.4270.510 5Skawina(43,11)12090.10.000.1080.1820.7401.157 6Łaziska I(8,20)20078.00.000.1220.1960.7700.872 7Będzin B(18,31)20065.00.000.1310.1850.7260.863 8Łęg(46,12)25052.00.000.3570.2911.2581.529 9Katowice(13,25)25052.00.000.1030.1620.6480.757 10Będzin A(18,31)16045.10.000.1420.2000.7850.933 11Łaziska II(8,20)16034.70.000.1360.2200.8660.981 12Łaziska III(8,20)10033.80.000.0650.1050.4150.470 13Jaworzno IIA(21,24)12029.90.000.1720.2000.8021.045 14Jaworzno IIB(21,24)10025.10.000.1520.1780.7150.933 15Halemba(8,25)11026.00.000.1150.2290.9331.207 16Bielsko-Biała(14,2)14018.70.000.1100.2471.0711.301 17Bielsko-Km.(15,1)25016.90.000.1610.3661.5811.921 18Chorzów(12,27)10015.10.000.1830.4001.6282.106 19Jaworzno I(20,23)15212.30.000.3180.3681.5001.939 20Tychy(13,19)12011.60.000.2740.6002.4393.154

8 a) the initial state b) desulphurization investments – 100 mln $/y c) desulphurization investments – 150 mln $/y d) desulphurization investments – 200 mln $/y

9 environmental cost reduction = 0.0721 initial abatement technology final 12345678 1303.20.00 1.0.00 75.75 2225.30.00.001.0.00 157.71 3104.00.00.00.00 1.0.00 47.32 491.80.00 1.09.64 590.10.00 1.09.46 678.00.001.0.00 54.60 765.00.001.0.00 45.50 852.00.001.0.00 36.40 952.001.0.00 52.00 1045.10.00 1.0.00 20.52 1134.70.001.0.00 24.29 1233.80.00 1.03.55 1329.90.00 1.03.14 1425.10.00 1.02.64 1526.00.00 1.0.003.91 1618.70.00 1.0.00 8.51 1716.90.001.0.00 11.83 1815.10.00 1.01.59 1912.30.00 1.0.00 5.60 2011.60.00 1.01.22 Table 5. Solution of (MP-A) problem for the cost constraint 200 mil. $/yr

10 A B Meteorological scenarios

11 a) b) Reduction of the index Concentration of SO 2 [ µg/m3 ] (case A)

12 a) b) Adjoint variable map (case A) Emission control

13 No.Source coord. Stack height [m] Initial emission [kg/h] Control factor case Acase B 1.Bielsko-Biala(14,2)160426.911.00 2.Będzin A(18,31)9594.891.00 3.Będzin B(18,31)135132.821.00 4.Bielsko-Komorowice(15,1)250426.91.00 5.Chorzów(12,27)100363.661.00 6.Halemba(8,25)110569.241.00 7.Jaworzno I(20,23)152284.611.00 8.Jaworzno IIA(21,24)100573.601.00 9.Jaworzno IIB(21,24)120664.080.801.00 10.Jaworzno III(15,1)3006324.600.801.04 11.Katowice(18,31)951106.811.101.01 12.Łagisza A(18,31)160948.691.001.01 13.Łagisza B(18,31)2001359.790.901.01 14.Łaziska I(8,20)2001660.211.101.00 15.Łaziska II(8,20)160758.951.00 16.Łaziska III(8,20)100727.951.00 17.Łęg(46,12)2601106.811.101.00 18.Miechowice(14,17)68161.281.00 19.Rybnik(1,20)3004711.831.251.00 20.Siersza A(30,231)1501929.000.801.02 21.SierszaB(30,23)2602055.490.801.02 22.Skawina(43,11)1201992.251.100.82 23.Szombierki A(9,31)110164.441.00 24.Szombierki B(9,31)120170.761.00 25.Tychy(13,19)120110.681.00 26.Zabrze A(2,29)60205.551.00 27.Zabrze B(2,29)120221.361.00